The next stage is to develop a preliminary vision for change for the selected energy market system. This vision needs to achieve the aspirations of the market actors in the development of their energy system, as well as being specific and concrete enough to achieve impact at scale. Although it is useful to develop an outline of the vision at this stage for planning purposes, it will be investigated much more fully during the later roadmap steps.
Using your preliminary energy market map, market actor analysis and preliminary market analysis summaries, the facilitation team can start developing their preliminary vision and strategy. It should be as close to the aspirations of where they think the market actors want to go as possible, using the information that’s been gathered so far and intelligent guesswork. The facilitators can use the template in Annex 5 to develop a short outline of the vision they hope will take place in the selected energy market. It should be as clear, focused and relevant as possible.
Note: Although it is impossible to know in advance how the market actors will respond to the rest of the roadmap steps and what specific solutions may emerge, this process provides a useful baseline, which can then be updated as the vision and strategy evolves through discussions with the market actors.
The following questions are useful for developing the vision and strategy:
Market actors: If the systemic issues were addressed, would there be more or less market actors and how would their roles change? Will new practices and business models emerge along the market chain, from energy processing, storage, technology manufacture, quality assurance to distribution and retail? What opportunities are likely for poor, vulnerable and marginalised actors, including women and end users?
Actor relationships: If the systemic barriers were addressed, how would the relationships and trust between the market actors change? How would this change the actors’ ability to innovate, adapt to new challenges and opportunities and respond to shocks? How would the power structures change to give marginalised actors greater choice and self-determination in their participation in the energy market system?
Energy products and services supply: If the systemic issues were addressed, how would the supply of the energy products and services to the end-markets change? How would the products be different, in terms of how they are delivered, their quality, volume and variety?
Market demand: What is the current demand for the market system energy products and services, and how is it expected to change in the future? How can new markets be realistically accessed?