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Step 6 - Roadmap logic of change

The energy markets roadmap process has the following broad logic of change:

This Energy Markets Roadmap contributes to sustainable and dignified livelihoods of large numbers of marginalised market actors through iterative improvements in an energy market systems led by a range of public and private market actors themselves enabled by market facilitators.

To achieve this logic of change the facilitators need to focus on the following actions referred to as the Three Wheels of Change:

  • Empowerment for Engagement: Marginalised actors are empowered to engage creatively and proactively with each other
  • Interaction for Transformation: Public and private market actors collaborate and coordinate visions and investments to start improving their own system and learn from each other
  • Communication for Uptake: Evidence of impact coming out of the innovation pockets is known by other actors throughout the market system

These Wheels of Change are achieved through a focus on the following:

Effective Facilitation: this has the great potential to disseminate ideas, technologies and services to large numbers of people, leading to added value, efficiency or productivity. It is a temporary process, focusing targeted support to certain market actors – often referred to as collaborators - to lead and own the process without distorting the market. However, to be successful it has to ensure that the benefitting market actors include the poor and women. Facilitators need to focus on creating the enabling conditions for the public and private market actors to learn from each other and external experts to drive the change that responds to their interests and motivations.

Indirect Impact: energy market systems are inherently complicated and open so it is not always possible to prove that changes are the result of the roadmap process itself. Change may be due to the actions that market actors take on their own or of other development programmes working in the same area. In addition the difference between direct and indirect beneficiaries often becomes blurred and meaningless, with a range of actors in the market system eventually becoming collaborators.

Sustainability: this has many different meanings for different people but is about actors being able to sustain themselves and their families without undermining the systems they and future generations depend upon. To ensure sustainability the impact on the human, cultural, social, political, psychological, emotional and even religious dimensions of the market actors need to be monitored and evaluated, including on women and the poor.

Innovation: effective facilitators must create “pockets” of innovation within market systems. This includes supporting market actors to invest their time and resources to pioneer new ideas, business models, technologies and processes, helping them transform the rest of the market system sustainably. Facilitators must use their skills and resources, as well as targeted subsidies, to reduce the perceived risks of the market actors so they start co-invest their own resources.

Inclusion: Market facilitators need to focus on promoting inclusion of marginalised actors, as well as the productivity and efficiency of the energy system. The level of inclusion can be used to qualify any change at the very top level of the logic of change, regarding changes in the quality of life of marginalised actors. However, it is important for facilitators to not just focus on marginalised market actors, as the better off actors are often key to developing a system equally benefitting all actors, including the marginalised.

Scale: The roadmap focuses on transforming an entire energy market system, rather than individual actors, ideally benefitting a large number of marginalised actors at scale.

Marginalisation Factors: It is also important for facilitators to identify the factors that lead to poverty, including the social, political and economic fractures that keep certain actors from effectively participating in the energy market. Facilitators can then design solutions to support these marginalised actors, such as changes in skill, relationships, incentives, policies, social norms and infrastructure, to help them realise their own potential.

  • Domains of change +

    The following table provide detail of the domains of change of each level of the log frame of an energy market system, as well as providing some indications for measuring the structural change.

    Description

    Domains of Change

    Goal, Vision, Overall Objective

    To contribute to the emergence of desirable properties of the energy market system to sustain on-going improvements to the livelihoods of large numbers of marginalised actors.

    Properties include inclusivity, adaptability, resilience, innovation, productivity and efficiency

    Emergent properties are collective effort, collaboration and coordination of the actors.

    These are the result of the interactions of many different actors and “above” the system distributed across many elements of it.

    Outcomes, Specific Objectives

    Public and private market actors - including marginalised actors - improving themselves and their system on an on-going basis.

    Improvements can happen within one or more levels of the energy market system, relating the 3 broad aspects:

    • Market Actor Performance
    • Relationships between Market Actors
    • Number and Location of Market Actors

    Performance indicators vary between actors: performance of financial institutions measured in volume of loans to key market actors, capacity to create and pilot new financial products; performance of energy manufacturer can be quality of products, repeat buyers, number of employees. Other performance indicators are income, profitability, rate of growth, investment in skills and technology.

    Relationship indicators include level of collaboration, competition, coordination, transparency and knowledge sharing.

    Change occurs within the 3 levels of the market map (including the marginalised actors):

    • Energy Market Chain
    • Enabling Environment
    • Inputs, Services and Finance

    Poverty reduction takes place at this level, through increases in income, profits, investment rates, and risk-taking, including the marginalised actors.

    However, if increases in income and positive changes in the wealth indicators of “the poor” are not accompanied by changes in other parts of the system the sustainability of these changes can be compromised. It is therefore important to keep an eye on the emergent properties of collective effort, collaboration and coordination.

    If actors connected to the collaborators or their networks copy or improve what they have done with the support of the facilitators, this can lead to the Third Wave of Change.

    Outputs - the processes to be facilitated or catalysed

    Changes in the capacity and behaviour of the market actors and their networks to:
    • Engage with each other in productive, creative, efficient and proactive ways
    • Transform their own system through collaborative planning and execution
    • Communicate the knowledge and experiences gained throughout the process with other market actors beyond the sphere of the facilitator

    The collaborators and their networks behave in ways that produce positive externalities; in other words, they do things to benefit one or more actors in the system and not just themselves.

    Pockets of innovation are created or enabled by the facilitator and taken up by the market actors, or collaborators, and their networks.

    As the market actors lead and own the Three Wheels of Change this leads to the First Wave of Change.

    As the market actors mobilise and align their own networks to satisfy their own agendas and those of the facilitators this leads to the Second Wave of Change.

    Activities - the things the facilitators do, the spaces they create, and the products and services delivered

    Whatever the facilitator does to create the appropriate conditions to enable, incentivise and support a range of strategic public and private market actors. These actors become collaborators deciding to work with the facilitator to create innovation pockets that drive change throughout the system.
    • Personal: skills, attitudes and mind set of the facilitator
    • Organisational: culture, structure, discourse, infrastructure, procedures, tools, incentives, goals, priorities, etc.
    • Sectoral: rules, procedures and incentives set up and enforced by donors and funders
    Note: If desired an extra level can be included at the top called the Goal or Overarching Goal specifically focusing on the sustainability of the livelihoods of marginalised actors. This is not required as marginalised actors are part of the market system but can be used to raise the visibility of poverty reduction in the log frame.
  • Comparing Traditional and Systemic Log Frames +

    The general structure of the above table is compatible with a traditional log frame but the content of each level differs significantly when carrying out a traditional intervention, compared to this systemic facilitation approach, as summarised in the following table.

    Traditional Direct Delivery

    Roadmap Systemic Facilitation

    Goal, Vision, Overall Objective

    To increase income or reduce poverty of groups of low-income people as a result of changes in their productivity or efficiency.Sustainable poverty reduction at scale achieved through structural change in the wider market system, including marginalised actors, and sustained by the emergent properties of the system.

    Intervention Unit

    Low income companies and households.The market system.

    Scope

    Narrow. Change is measured of the low income group the organisation directly engages withBroad. Change is measured well beyond the sphere of direct influence of the facilitator to other market actors.

    Sustainability and Scalability

    Depends on the presence of the organisation to replicate pilots to further contribute to the livelihoods of the poor. It assumes that if the objective of poverty reduction is achieved, it automatically contributes to the goal of sustainable livelihoods. Sustainability is understood as the permanence of change of the target groups through time (e.g. the new cookstoves keep being manufactured and used).Sustainability and scalability are driven by the market system, through emergent properties that sustain poverty reduction at scale, including adaptability, resilience, inclusion, innovation and competitiveness. It doesn’t assume an automatic link between poverty reduction and the sustainability of their livelihoods, but assumes sustainable poverty reduction depends on desirable emergent properties that can be measured or detected. Sustainability is understood as the capacity of marginalised actors and the wider system to adapt to future changes and shocks.

    Outcomes, Specific Objectives

    Changes in the people the organisation wants to help, contributing directly to poverty reduction (e.g. poor entrepreneur improves the design, manufacturing process and business model of an improved cookstove).Changes in one of more of the levels of the energy market system, which improves how the market system performs and evolves. This includes increases in the production and income of marginalised actors, although not directly related to poverty reduction (e.g. marginalised stove entrepreneurs are connected to other market actors and processes that guarantee that they will continue to develop the performance and production efficiency of their stoves in the future).

    Outputs

    The services or products delivered by the project to the target population, leading to changes in assets or infrastructure at the level of the target group (e.g. training workshops and new equipment and moulds for poor stove entrepreneur).Changes in networks and routines that drive change in the system. These changes belong to one or more of the “Three Wheels of Change” (e.g. poor stove entrepreneur develop their relationships with a range of market actors to manufacture, distribute and sell better quality stoves, finance is provided to the stove entrepreneur, the Ministry of Energy increases awareness on the benefits of improved stoves to the potential customers etc.)

    Activities

    Centred on what the implementer does to change things directly through a set of tasks executed by project staff at a given costs and at a given point in time. Linear logic typically dominates, with the more money there is to carry out the activities, the more desirable impacts are achieved.Centred on the capacity of the facilitator to engage key market actors (collaborators) for them to drive changes that matter to them. Highly dependent on the personal and organisational circumstances of the facilitator and the structures and dynamics of the market system. Non-linear logic typically dominates, with the better the facilitation, the less money needed to spent to achieve desirable impacts.

    Action: The facilitation team should generate a log frame for their energy market system, using the template in Annex 1, including assessing each of the levels of change. It doesn’t matter if this log frame is perfect at the beginning, but it will provide a useful outline that can then be improved later on.

  • Systemic Log Frame Indicators +

    The following table helps identify a number of potential indicators from each level of the logic of change for the Energy Market System from the objective down to the activities. It is not an exhaustive list of indicators but can be used as a means to stimulate discussion and reflection within the facilitation team to agree on indicators that will allow the team to start detecting important signals of change within their selected energy market system.

    LevelDescription of the IndicatorsIndicator Examples
    Objective or ImpactIndicators show changes in the emergent properties of the energy market system that sustain poverty reduction at scale. These include increased resilience, inclusion, innovation and competitiveness in the behaviour of groups, networks, firms or institutions in response to crises and opportunities within the market system.
    • Collaboration or coordination of groups of market actors to overcome crises and challenges or exploit opportunities.
    • Mobilisation of resources by groups of actors
    • Recombination of resources to produce new ideas, technologies, techniques, business models, etc.
    Outcomes or Expected ResultsIndicators show changes in one or more of the three levels of the market system. Some changes are hard to measure and monitor through time, but it is important to pay close attention to changes of the market actors, including copying and adaptation of ideas, technologies or actions. Keep in mind that the deeper the change or the further away it is from the collaborators, the harder it is to measure and monitor.
    • Number and location of market actors
    • Relationships of market actors
    • Performance of market actors In increasing order of depth:
    • Stocks and flows of tangible, transferrable assets (e.g. number of solar lanterns in a community; number of stoves manufactured and distributed by an entrepreneur)
    • Size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks (e.g. how many other products and how much savings does a energy technology retailer have)
    • Speed of information flows.
    • Gains around positive feedback loops (e.g. crowding-in and imitation due to success).
    • Capacity to change the structure of the system in response to shocks and opportunities.
    Outputs or Deliverables

    Indicators that show changes in networks (e.g. groups, and organisations) and routines that drive change in the system (precursor networks), under one or more Wheel of Change:

    • Empowerment for Engagement
    • Interaction for Transformation
    • Communication for Uptake

    These networks drive change through showing leadership and convening others, sharing knowledge, and advocating and influencing policy makers. The larger the market actor networks (e.g. multinational corporations, supermarkets with national or international operations and large cooperatives), the easier they can change the system at a large scale and for a longer time.

    These indicators can be used to detect whether the market actors networks are getting stronger and more independent:

    • Members gain broader and deeper awareness of available assets in their networks.
    • Members spend more time introducing themselves and helping others connect.
    • Members discover more opportunities to engage and combine their assets to create a future different from the past.
    • Members talk more about their dreams and assets than their problems and deficiencies.
    • Members value change and differences as more valuable to the network's growth than similarities and protecting a status quo.
    • People in the network together become more self-organising, innovative, agile, inclusive, strengths-based, and dedicated to shared improvements.
    ActivitiesProcess indicators that show what the facilitator does, closely linked to the roles of the facilitator.
    • Number of meetings (at different stages of the implementation cycle).
    • Number of stakeholders engaged.
    • Volume of subsidies used to catalyse market development.

    Action: The facilitation team should update their log frame using the template in Annex 2 to identify 2-3 indicators to allow them to measure the change within each level of their selected energy market system.

    Note: It is better to start with fewer indicators and add more as required, as new and important signals in the system are identified, rather than trying to start with a complete set of fixed indicators for the duration of the roadmap process.
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